Where will Charles Barkley go? What if ESPN loses JJ Redick? Thoughts on NBA media issues (2024)

The NBA Finals are always an opportune time to take the temperature of where the NBA stands in the media space and where the broadcast partners are with upcoming deals.

As has been previously reportedand confirmed by The Athletic, frameworks are in place for deals with ESPN/ABC, Amazon and NBC. Conversations are ongoing with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which has publicly threatened to try to match any deal. All of these musical chairs will have a significant impact on broadcasting moves.

As the finals begin Thursday, The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand and Richard Deitsch offer their impressions on the NBA media deal saga, what it means for Charles Barkley and “Inside the NBA,” what ESPN will do if JJ Redick leaves to coach the Los Angeles Lakers, and whether a series between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks can draw major viewership.

Deitsch: Let’s play a fun parlor game to start. Imagine WBD ends up losing the NBA. Where does Barkley go?

Marchand: Wherever he wants. I know ESPN, Amazon and NBC are interested in him, according to executives briefed on their plans. If TNT Sports loses the NBA, I’m not sure Barkley is just totally free to do whatever he wants — though it might end up that way — especially if he continues to go after Warner Bros. Discovery chairman David Zaslav.

WBD Sports still has the NCAA Tournament, which Barkley works on, and other events where they could use him. Barkley has said he can just leave on his own accord. There have been no real discussions on how Barkley, Ernie Johnson, Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith could stay together, but there will be. If it is ESPN, Amazon and NBC, they will all surely listen.

But driving it all will be Barkley. He might receive a huge offer and just go do that on his own. He’s the best sports studio analyst ever, so he has a lot of power. What do you think?

Deitsch: Everyone who loves that show is probably hoping they’ll end up being packaged somewhere, even for a year. That’s a tough ask, and here is what’s not often discussed: The show would change in some ways given you would not hire everyone working behind the scenes. Long-term, the new NBA media players will likely want to create their own signature NBA studio show given the length of the contract, but any “Inside the NBA” connection for a partner would give that partner instant studio credibility.

As you said, Barkley can go wherever he wants. An educated guess is that any number will be closer to $20 million annually than $10 million. If I had to handicap a non-WBD player, I would cautiously put my money on NBC. Very cautiously.

Let’s move to the ESPN crew of Mike Breen, Doris Burke and Redick: Will they be one and done?

Marchand: This new ESPN crew is likely one and done. Breen is not going anywhere. The Athletic’s Shams Charania has reported that the Lakers are zeroing in on Redick as their next coach, though UConn coach Dan Hurley has emerged as a potential alternative. Burke will continue on, but she might not go on for a long time, as I’ve heard she doesn’t want to be a lifer like Hubie Brown. So ESPN, after nuking its longtime crew of Breen, Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson and then having Doc Rivers basically leave for coaching before he really even started as an ESPN analyst, could have its third new combo in a little more than a year to start next season.

Deitsch: Agreed. Dave Roberts, the head of event and studio production at ESPN, has significant decisions ahead of him given the new NBA media deal begins in 2025. As both of us have written, it screwed up royally in getting rid of Van Gundy, and the public reasons for the dismissal were absurd.

In the long term, ESPN has to think about who will be calling the NBA Finals and a conference final in, say, 2030. Health-willing, hopefully Breen, 63, continues into his 70s. But the analyst position is key. Any hire likely has to be either a youngish (in media years) high-profile former player or coach. Where do the media deals stand right now based on your reporting?

Marchand: The Warner Bros. Discovery wild card is where it stands right now. The NBA is closing in on the paperwork with ESPN, Amazon and NBC on 11-year deals that will go into the mid-2030s, but Zaslav has publicly said he could match. They might go after Amazon Prime Video’s agreement, which is for around $1.8 billion a year. The lawyers will fight it out, and though I tend to doubt it, it could eventually be headed to a court of law.

The NBA clearly wants ESPN, Amazon and NBC to be its partners, but it can’t yet be entirely ruled out that the league will create a fourth package to make the drama go away. It’s possible there will be an announcement or the paperwork will be done during the finals, but it is complicated.

Let’s turn back to the finals. The NBA suddenly has a lot of parity with a new matchup of the Celtics and Mavericks. What is your take on what that means for viewership?

Deitsch: Hollywood knows all about risk aversion. If you want to know why you see so many sequels or reboots, the answer is financial. It’s a safer bet against loss. The familiar sells — we’ve often seen that in sports as well when it comes to popularity metrics. The NBA Finals matchups between the Steph Curry-led Golden State Warriors and LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2010s each averaged more than 17 million viewers. Viewers became familiar with the storylines and star players. Even the Toronto Raptors’ win over the Warriors in 2019 averaged 15.1 million viewers, an impressive number given anyone watching on Canadian television in the Toronto area would not be part of Nielsen’s estimated viewership. That series is the last NBA Finals to feature a game with more than 14 million viewers.

It makes this year’s Celtics-Mavericks series interesting given it runs counter to the NBA’s last 30 years of finals featuring mostly narratives of greatness and dynasty. The Mavericks’ making the finals means 10 franchises have played for the NBA championship since 2018. This series will have a game that tops 14 million because I’m predicting it to go long. Length is ultimately what ESPN/ABC and the NBA desire. But I don’t expect either team to be dynastic.

Marchand: Either way, the NBA is about to double or triple what it brings in for TV revenues in the next deal, so the ratings won’t really matter for another decade or so.

(Top illustration: Daniel Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Garrett Ellwood / NBAE / Getty Images, Mitchell Leff / Getty Images, Jamie Schwaberow / NBAE / Getty Images)